美國總統奧巴馬將于11月13-15日訪華，目前兩國及國際社會許多國家都密切關注奧巴馬上任以來的第一次中國之行，并對胡-奧峰會的成果持有較高的期望。因為，他們達成的任何協議都將給國際制度的改革、全球治理、重要的熱點問題的解決前景帶來程度不同的影響。
應該講，今年以來中美關系的開局良好，雙方關系已經被定位為積極、合作、全面的關系框架。隨著中美力量關系的對比出現了局部性的質變后，雙邊的關系也已經從焦點是地緣政治制衡加全面的經濟合作的階段進入到了淡化地緣政治競爭與政治意識形態沖突，重點轉向全球合作治理與散發性的微觀經濟摩擦階段。尤其是隨著臺海兩岸關系的持續改善和中美在金融與財政領域利益悠關度的深化，雙方的關系在宏觀上已經趨向于高度的穩定。“中美共治”這個概念雖然不為各大國和中美兩國領導人所接受，但從權力和資源擁有范圍看，它們結成特殊性的合作伙伴關系和進行全方位的實質性合作，必將給全球帶來巨大的影響。
對于中美兩國領導人來說，目前面臨最緊迫的問題是，如何共同應對哥本哈根氣候會議要求制定碳排放限額規定的壓力。中美兩國是最大的兩個碳排放國家，排放量約占全球的40%。由于中國人均碳排放量要遠遠底于美國，大規模排放的歷史也短于美國，所以，中國作為發展中的國家在現階段不可能作出在未來的十年里減少排放的具體承諾。中國可以承諾的是，到2020年將可再生能源的比重增加到總能源的15%，同時大力建設風能和太陽能項目。但兩國在減排的技術上可以進行合作，如碳捕獲和封存技術、清潔煤和電動汽車方面可以展開聯合研究，所以胡錦濤和奧巴馬將簽署協議促進兩國的清潔能源合作。
兩國元首需要討論的第二個問題是匯率和貿易摩擦。奧巴馬現正力推“可持續及均衡增長的框架”構想，認為最近幾十年來，中美之間的經濟關系已經變得“深刻地不平衡”了，中國對美貿易順差越來越大，持有的美國國債也數額巨大。為使美國從只消費、只借款、不生產、不儲蓄、大量進口的國家轉化為擁有一定的制造業、充足的自有資本和貿易平衡的國家，奧巴馬將會進一步要求中方調整收入分配結構，擴大內需和減少出口，同時，加快人民幣升值。近期，美國對中國頻頻發起反傾銷、反補貼的貿易保護主義的措施，就是這種經濟戰略的反映。奧巴馬在紐約與胡錦濤會談時曾承諾，輪胎特保案是一個特例，下不為例。顯然美國不準備遵守這個承諾。
奧巴馬將以給予中國“市場經濟地位”為誘餌，讓中國放棄鼓勵出口的政策、按照國際市場商品的價值來對其出口的產品定價，并對美進一步開放金融服務業與娛樂產業的市場。中方充分理解美國調整其生產結構與生活方式，平衡其龐大的財政與國際收支的赤字及債務的良苦用心，但是，這種調整必須是在符合世界貿易組織的規則，不損害別國的利益為前提的情況下進行的。為此，中國領導人將會要求奧巴馬控制貿易保護主義繼續蔓延的態勢。中國愿意采取措施轉變經濟增長方式，擴大進口，也會繼續按照可控、漸進的方式讓人民幣匯率保持適度的浮動。但在以低廉和缺乏技術的勞力為主的國家里，產業的調整是艱難的和緩慢的，增長方式的轉變需要很長時間，目前要減少美國貿易逆差的最好的方法是，擴大美國高科技產品對華的出口，讓更多的中國公司去美國投資，這樣，既吸收了美國的勞力，又可降低美國對華商品的進口。
雙方領導人完全有可能按照第20屆中美商貿聯委會達成的協議，同意適時召開貿易救濟工作組和市場經濟地位工作組會議，討論承認中國市場經濟地位問題。美方將歡迎中國企業赴美投資，將確保中國企業得到公平對待；中國將擴大公民赴美旅游的實施范圍。兩國還會就貿易爭端涉及的一系列問題進行綜合對話，尋找解決問題的途徑。
雙方關心的第三個議題將是戰略互信問題。美國常務副國務卿斯坦伯格9月24日在一次演講中提出，中美兩國相互應該提供“戰略保證”（strategic reassurance）。這次演講是奧巴馬政府就職以來，高級官員首次就新政府對華政策框架做出的全面闡述，似乎美國政府有把“戰略保證”取代布什時期的“負責任的利益攸關方”的打算。但是，“戰略保證”的這種提法在視野上和可行性方面沒有達到，更沒有超越“負責任的利益攸關方”這個概念的戰略層次。“戰略保證”的意圖是讓中國向美國保證，其軍事發展是與和平發展的目的相一致的，雙方各要了解對方在安全上的關注點，找到合適的方式來處理雙方的問題。顯然，這是一種消極性的合作，而不是在全球性議題上的廣泛合作，構建一個或9。11的國際秩序。
中國不可能單方面向美國作出戰略保證，它一定要美國在對臺軍售、導彈防御體系、它同其東亞盟國的軍事合作方面對中國作出保證。顯而易見，奧巴馬在與中國領導人會談時，無法就這個政策框架作出有意義的宣講。奧巴馬能夠強調的方面，主要是繼續中美軍事交流，提高雙方軍事上的透明度。中方將贊同這種合作，但是，同時也會告誡美國，對臺軍售和美臺進一步提升軍事合作是中美軍事交流持續發展的最大的障礙。另外，美國國會2000財年《國防授權法》和《迪萊修正案》對兩軍在12個領域交流的限制，美方對中方的戰略意圖和中國軍力發展的合理性提出質疑，美艦機頻繁到中國專屬經濟區海域及其上空活動，都是破壞兩軍正常交往的重要因素。
目前來看，奧巴馬總統冷戰思維較少，他可能也愿意認真聽取和認可胡錦濤的一些看法與建議。但是，他的安全班子成員，國家情報總局、軍方對其在對華政策與戰略上的任何柔和姿態都會進行制約。美國最近與緬甸的接近和宣示要成為未來東亞共同體的成員，均充分表明，這些智囊人士正在推動美國在東南亞擴大主導性影響，保持與中國的優勢或平衡。所以，奧巴馬在這次訪問中，不可能在推動雙方戰略互信方面取得實質性的成果。
中國新聞網
英文版：
The attention of the world is focused on U.S. President Obama's upcoming visit to China. The international community has high expectations for the meeting between Obama and Chinese President Hu Jintao. Any agreements reached will have important consequences for global governance.
With the gradual change in the balance of power between China and U.S., their bilateral relationship is shifting from a narrow focus on economic cooperation to broader issues of global cooperation and governance. The improvement in relations between the Chinese mainland and Taiwan and the deepening of financial and fiscal interdependence between China and the U.S. have both enhanced the stability of the Sino-U.S. relationship. Closer partnership between the two nations will have a huge global impact, even if the concept of a G2 is not accepted by the leaders of the other great powers, or even by the U.S. and China.
Currently topping the agenda for both nations is how to deal with pressure for restrictions on emissions at the Copenhagen Climate Conference. China and the United States between them account for nearly 40 percent of global emissions. China argues that since its China's per capita emissions are still low and its history of large-scale emissions much shorter than that of the United States, it cannot make a concrete commitment to reduce emission in the coming ten years. But it may commit to increasing the proportion of renewables in its energy mix to 15 percent by 2020, and stepping up construction of wind and solar power projects. The two nations are likely to initiate technical cooperation on emissions cuts and President Hu Jintao and President Obama are likely to sign a deal on cooperation in clean energy.
The next issue on the agenda will be friction over trade and the yuan exchange rate. Obama wants to promote "a framework for sustainable and balanced growth", to correct the profound imbalances that have developed between the two nations in recent decades. China has a huge and growing trade surplus with the United States and is the world's largest holder of U.S. treasury bonds. Obama wants to move the U.S. away from consuming, importing and borrowing, achieve a certain level of manufacturing capacity, and reduce the trade deficit. To achieve these goals, he needs China to adjust its income distribution, expand domestic demand, reduce exports, and accelerate the appreciation of RMB. In line with Obama's strategy, the United States recently launched a number of anti-dumping suits against China. Although when Obama met President Hu Jintao in New York, he said measures taken against Chinese tires were exceptional and this has not been borne out by events.
President Obama will recognize China's market economy status if China gives up its export stimulus policy and prices its export products in line with the international market. President Obama will also ask China to open up its financial markets and entertainment industry to the United States. China fully understands that the United States is attempting to re-adjust its economy and life style to reduce its huge deficits but insists that adjustments should be made in accordance with the rules of the WTO and should not damage the interests of other countries. The Chinese leader will ask Obama to control the spread of trade protectionism. China will also take measures to modify its economic growth model and boost imports, as well as allowing the RMB to rise gradually in a controlled manner. But industrial restructuring will be tough and slow, because in the past China has mainly depended on cheap labor rather than technology. The best way to reduce the United States trade deficit would be to boost high-tech exports to China and allow more Chinese enterprises to invest in the United States. In this way the United States could create tens of thousands of jobs as well as reducing imports from China.
The third main agenda item will be strategic trust. James B Steinberg., the US Deputy Secretary of State, has raised the concept of "strategic reassurance" in relations between China and U.S. It seems that the Obama administration is looking to replace President Bush's policy of encouraging China to be a "responsible stakeholder". But the concept of "strategic reassurance" is no better than that of "responsible stakeholder". Its intent is to push China to pledge to the US that its military development is in accordance with its goal for a peaceful development. But the real challenge is that the two sides have to understand each others' security concerns and find proper ways to deal with bilateral problems.
China cannot offer the US unilateral reassurance. The US must make similar commitments on issues like weapons sales to Taiwan, missile defense and military cooperation with its East Asian allies. We can safely predict that Obama will bring no meaningful new strategic policies to the table at this summit. What Obama might stress is improved military ties and transparency between the two countries. China will agree to cooperate in this way, but at the same time, it will warn America that major obstacles to military cooperation will remain as long as America continues selling weapons to Taiwan. US doubts on the strategic intention and the rationale of China's military development and its frequent patrolling of Chinese waters are also factors obstructing military cooperation between the two countries.
Judging from his public remarks, President Obama does not have a Cold War mentality. So he may be willing to listen to and acknowledge issues raised by President Hu Jintao. But he is also heavily influenced by the National Security Agency and the armed forces. The US is currently enhancing its relations with Myanmar and proclaiming its intention to become a member of the East Asian Community. This demonstrates that Obama's basic approach is to enhance the dominant influence of America in Southeast Asia in order to balance China's increasing role in the region. With such an approach, Obama will have little success in boosting strategic trust between the two countries during his visit.
(Translated by Gong Jie, Wu Jin)
